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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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